Derek Lacey|Asheville Citizen Times
New COVID-19 cases in Buncombe County continue to steadily decline, but the county still ranks as a high-transmission area, health officials say as they turn their focus to the upcoming vaccination eligibility of 5-11-year-olds.
In an update before the County Board of Commissioners Oct. 19, Public Health Director Stacie Saunders said cases, although down again week-over-week, are still high.
"This is a very hopeful sign," she said. "But we continue to say that these levels are not yet at a very desirable or low level."
Since COVID-19 cases bottomed out in Buncombe County July 1, the county has added more than 9,500 new COVID-19 cases and 80 deaths, Saunders said, bringing the total for the pandemic, since March 2020, to 27,658 total cases.
That underscores the significant impact of the more transmissible delta variant on the community, she said, particularly on those who are unvaccinated.
More: As new COVID-19 cases decrease, Buncombe doubles down on vaccine outreach
COVID-19-related deaths stay high, Saunders said, with about 11 in the week ending Oct. 18, but with declining hospitalization rates, she's hopeful that deaths will also start to drop.
"The bottom line here with our metrics, Buncombe County is still an area with high transmission, despite the decrease in case rates that we're seeing," she said. "We're just not seeing them at levels low enough yet."
Saunders said she'll continue to monitor the metrics, and didn't make a recommendation regarding the county's ongoing face covering requirement that's set to expire Oct. 29, saying "the data will be driving our recommendations."
County Manager Avril Pinder also said the county will continue to monitor the situationbefore making recommendations on the mask mandate.
According to numbers Saunders presented at the update, the county is seeing 162 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents per week, down from 198, 216 and 240 in the three previous weeks.
The county's test positivity rate, or the number of COVID-19 tests returning positive results, is down to 6.1% from 6.7% reported Oct. 5.
Statewide COVID-19 numbers
Statewide, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services is reporting similar trends, with new daily cases steadily declining from a peak around early September.
On Oct. 19, the state logged 1,374 new cases, the lowest since late July, though the statewide positivity rate has climbed to 7.6% as of Oct. 17.
While the total number of cases has declined, the split among those cases by age group hasn't changed, Saunders said, with the most cases among those 25-49 and the fewest cases among residents 65 and older, who have higher vaccination rates.
"As we are continuing to move through this delta surge, vaccination status did matter and still does matter," she said. "In particular, those who are unvaccinated had a risk over four times that of a vaccinated person to become ill."
More: Buncombe health director hopes to avoid deadly COVID-19 winter amid vaccination efforts
Also, she said more than 85% of hospitalizations and almost 90% of ICU hospitalizations are among unvaccinated residents.
"This, I believe, is showing us that COVID-19 vaccine that is available to us right now is reducing our risk of becoming ill, it's reducing our risk of serious illness should somebody contract the virus," she said. "It keeps us out of the hospital and significantly reduces the risk of the need for ICU intervention."
The latest data from the state Department of Health and Human Services shows that the risk of dying for anunvaccinated person is almost 20 times that of a vaccinated person, Saunders said.
COVID-19 hospitalizations
As of 1:30 a.m. Oct. 19, Mission Hospital in Asheville reported 72 COVID-19 patients, with 90 in the Mission Health system across Western North Carolina, according to spokesperson Nancy Lindell.
Of those, seven were at Angel Medical Center in Franklin, one at Blue Ridge Regional Hospital in Spruce Pine, six at Mission Hospital McDowell in Marion and four at Transylvania Regional Hospital in Brevard.
Numbers Saunders presented Oct. 19 show 4.1 COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 residents per week as of Oct. 18, with 7.8% of inpatient hospital beds occupied with COVID-19 patients and 33.7% of ICU beds occupied with COVID-19 patients.
Statewide, NCDHHS reports 1,896 people currently hospitalized with COVID-19, including 529 ICU patients, both numbers that have been steadily dropping over the past several weeks.
"Delta variant is still widely circulating around us, and as that's occurring we are also entering cold and flu season," Saunders said.
While there seems to be little flu activity so far, she said, folks should get their flu shots now.
If anyone is showing symptoms, including cough, fever, chills, shortness of breath or fatigue,Saunders urged them to get tested for COVID-19 and not assume they have a cold.
Vaccination focus turns to 5-11-year-olds
As nearly 63% of the total county population is at least partially vaccinated, and 60% totally vaccinated, Saunders said vaccine outreach efforts are shifting focus to the next group expected to become eligible: residents aged 5-11.
Of those eligible in the county for a vaccine, those12 and older, 71% have received at least one dose of a vaccine, she said.
The FDA is expected to discuss extending vaccines to those 5-11 at an Oct. 26 meeting, Saunders said, and even if approved, the move will still need to get the OK from the Centers for Disease Control and Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.
That full approval is expected in early November, she said, after which the county plans to modify its operations at the Buncombe County Health and Human Services headquarters at 40 Coxe Ave. and add Saturday outreach programs at schools starting Nov. 13.
County health officials will also work to reach out toarea pediatricians and family medicine providers, parents and caregivers along with schools, Saunders said, with tentative Q&A sessions and town hall meetings planned.
Buncombe County will be the site of one of 10-12 Pfizer Family Vaccination Sites hosted by NCDHHS, she said, which will focus on vaccinations for 5-11-year-olds and their families for about six weeks.
Younger folks have also been getting vaccinated more, she showed, with those aged 18-24representing the largest increase in vaccination rates by age group over the week ending Oct. 18, when those county residents jumped from 56% to 58% at least partially vaccinated.
The county's 30-day vaccine push is wrapping up, after 265 vaccinations were administered at eight outreach events between Sept. 21-Oct. 8 with one more to go at Owen Middle School Oct. 26.
So far, just the county's vaccination efforts have administered more than 102,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccines, she said, with fixed-site operations at the Health Department on Coxe Avenue in downtown Asheville open 9 a.m.-4 p.m. Monday-Friday.
Over the summer, Saunders said the county hosted 62 outreach events, has given 231 doses to homebound county residents since March, and is set to start administering COVID-19 booster shots to long-term care facilities Oct. 25.
The county started giving booster shots of the Pfizer vaccine Sept 27, delivering more than 1,550 doses in three weeks, she said atBuncombe's booster vaccine drive-thru site at Biltmore Church's Arden Campus.
That site will be open until Oct. 22, open 10 a.m.-2 p.m. Monday-Friday.
"There is a COVID-19 vaccine waiting for you," Saunders said. "Please don't risk getting the illness. Gambling with COVID-19 can be detrimental to you and devastating to your family."
Derek Lacey covers health care, growth and development for the Asheville Citizen Times. Reach him at DLacey@gannett.com or 828-417-4842 and find him on Twitter @DerekAVL.
